I don't trust it. Just keep making investments, and let the market take its course over the long-term." The quotes have been collected from the following posts, merged, and edited to delete duplicates: What Experts Say About Market-Timing vs. Stay-The-Course, The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need, Smartest Investment Book You'll Ever Read, Your Complete Retirement Planning Road Map, Bogleheads investing start-up kit for non-US investors, https://www.bogleheads.org/w/index.php?title=Taylor_Larimore%27s_market_timing_quotes&oldid=60903. I kind of feel like reading that thread was akin to coming up on a group of people standing on a bridge contemplating diving into the river below of unknown depth head first as … (Fred Schwed Jr.. "Trust in time and forget market timing. The main concern would be the cost of the debt for the leverage. Invest for the long haul and then sit back and wait -- the market always goes up in the long-run." Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994). (Dick Davis, publisher of, "Let's say it clearly: No one knows where the market is going -- experts or novices, soothsayers or astrologers. Or, to build a proper asset allocation for their own individual needs, they may buy a stock mutual fund and bond mutual fund to be diversified in both asset classes. (, "Only liars manage to always be 'out' during bad times and 'in' during good times." by Dale_G » Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:35 pm, Post by Ariel » Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:43 pm, Post That's the simple truth." (David L. Babson, famed investor), "There is an overwhelming body of evidence to support the view that believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future." That’s a lot of work to achieve what could be accomplished by taking a nap.” – Christopher H. Browne. (Indexuniverse.com), "No one is smart enough to time the market's ups and downs." (, "An October 2009 study found that of more than 5,000 strategies that employ technical analysis, none produced returns in the 49 countries beyond what you'd expect by chance." (Peter Lynch), "The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room." (, “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good." (John Markese, President, American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), "I've learned that market timing can ruin you." Indeed, I've never heard of such a genius." by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:17 pm, Post market timer-dont have time to read the whole thread but one should take their labor capital into account when deciding on their asset allocation. In this paper, Sharpe reportedly found that a market timer who switches between 100% stocks and 100% T-bills on an annual basis must be correct about 74% of the time (on average) to beat the market. Search. by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 6:31 pm, Post So let’s say the market timer got out a year before that, Oct 1, 2006. By the way, as an additional point, someone who had followed this scheme with a decade of investment returns from the 1930s or the 1970s would have been in a world of hurt given the poor stock market returns of those eras. (Peter Bernstein, author, researcher), "Buy-and-hold will still be justified by low costs, diversification, and mean reversion." (2003 Dalber Study), "The buy and hold (S&P 500) equity investor would have earned a return of 8.35% for the 20 years ending 12/08, while the market-timer would have earned just 1.87%." Your first post implied that you held a PhD degree: This surprises me because my PhD is in economics. Choose the risk tolerance you're OK with and hold tight." (, "Market timing recommendations have an impressive track record of being harmful to an investor's financial health." (Paul Farrell, CBS, "The best practice for investors is to design a long-term globally diversified asset allocation based on present and future financial needs. (, "Some people in the popular press talk about 'getting into' a bull market and 'getting out of' a bear market, but it is all marketing hype." Please be advised that in the event of decreased liquidity or extreme volatility in the market, easyMarkets may switch trading to “Close only” or disable all trading. The parents of a newborn sell a zero coupon bond maturing in 65 years and invest the proceeds in a diversified basket of equities. (Eric Tyson, author of, "Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator" (W. Scott Simon, author), "Don't waste money subscribing to investment letters or expensive services. “Nobel Prize winner William Sharpe found that a market timer must be right a staggering 82 percent of the time to match a buy and hold return. Many take a less-is-more approach, suggesting a … "It turns out that I should have just bought them (securities), and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant. market timer-dont have time to read the whole thread but one should take their labor capital into account when deciding on their asset allocation. Finding the proper balance is key.” For instance, here is an example of after-inflation returns using different asset allocations from 2000-2002, a decidedly “bear market” period: (, "If you become upset when one of your asset classes does poorly, even when the rest of your portfolio is doing well, then you should not be managing your own money." "It's my belief that it's a waste of time to try to time any market decline, or try to pinpoint a market bottom." by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:09 pm, Post (Pat Dorsey, Morningstar Director of Fund Analysis), "The performance of 185 tactical asset allocation mutual funds was compared with buy-and-hold strategies and equity mutual funds over the years 1985-97. Advanced Search Mom called out of the blue a while back to complain about her portfolio. It always was my sitting." "If you buy -- and then hold -- a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run." But in general I think non-professional investors should avoid options. Bogleheads® , a term intended to honor Vanguard founder and investor advocate John Bogle, are investing enthusiasts who follow the investing principles of John Bogle. (Paul Merriman, author of, "I can't point to any mutual fund anywhere in the world that's produced a superior long-term record using market timing as its main investment criteria." (Frank Armstrong. Here are the purchase dates, the crashes that followed and the amount invested at each date: Luckily, while Bob couldn’t time his buys, he never sold out of the market even once. (James Stewart, "People should stop chasing performance and just put together a sensible portfolio regardless of the ups and downs of the market." No one can beat or time the market consistently, therefore it is best to buy low-cost diversified index funds, tracking markets as closely as possible. (, "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time." This article is the definitive list of Taylor Larimore's market timing quotes. (, "Buy and hold. Frazer Rice is the author of “Wealth, Actually: Intelligent Decision-Making for the 1%”, host of the “Wealth, Actually” podcast, creator of the "Wealth, Actually" blog, and a Northeast Regional Director for Pendleton Square Trust Company. (Dr. David Blitzer, named 1998 nation's top economist), "There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: Those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know." As I understand them, options are usually a negative-sum game. by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 9:51 pm, Post by White Coat Investor » Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:44 pm, Post (Carol Gould, "There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." "Staying on course may be just as difficult in bull markets as in bear markets." To recap, Bob was a terrible market timer with his only stock market purchases being made at the market peaks just before extreme losses. ... “I can’t recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes’ annual list of the richest people in the world. Market timing. So instead of writing off market timing, let’s ask, “When does market timing work?” I looked into this, using the S&P 500 (with dividends) since 1990, and discovered that to succeed as a market timer you would have to: Know when the market is about … (Jane Bryant Quinn, author, columnist). (Graham/Campbell Study), "Those of us that live by looking in a crystal ball learn to eat a lot of broken glass." 14K likes. (indexfundsadvisors.com), "I'm a strong advocate of buying and holding." Thank you for being honest market timer. I'm not sure I'm willing to risk everything on that assumption. The growing proliferation of indexes from index providers, along with a corresponding growing number of index funds and ETFs, creates a number of issues for investors, since the index returns of the different providers result in a dispersion of both yearly and multi-period returns. Don't try it -- ever." by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:26 pm, Post (Baer & Ginsler. (Chandan & Sengupta, financial authors), "A successful investor has a good knowledge base, a well-defined investment plan, and nerves of steel to stick with it." (Mary Roland, journalist and author of, "In the long run it doesn't matter much whether your timing is great or lousy. (Dalbar Research, 2015), "No one can time the market on a consistent basis." by LH » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:19 pm, Post Welcome to TradingHours.com - The most trusted source for data-related financial reference data. (Paul Singer, hedge fund billionaire, "Only two newsletters have managed to keep ahead of the market averages over the past decade (and none have done so over the past 15 years)." Buy-and-hold is still your best long-run strategy." Bogleheads.org. Tak trzeba żyć: In 1975, Nobel laureate William Sharpe published a study titled “Likely Gains from Market Timing”. Basically, their philosophy comes down to the following. (Arthur Levitt, former SEC chairman), "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. You'll lose money. by watchnerd » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:51 pm, Post (Malcolm Forbes), "Nobody, but nobody, has consistently guessed the direction of the bond or stock market over any meaningful length of time." First, I know a lot about market timing, which I’ve been using and teaching for 30 years. Then follow that plan religiously, through all markets good and bad." My 86-Year-Old Mother Is An Inadvertent Market Timer. This page was last edited on 5 May 2017, at 11:08. (, "Once anomalies are discovered, the act of exploiting them will cause them to disappear." Stay invested. A long-term market timer needs to have the approach to review the situation regularly, the objective signals for when to sell and to buy, and the mindset of accepting that the market moves sometimes in a different direction than that they expect. "For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy." Hardcover $17.39 $ 17. (Graham & Zweig, "In a study of 66,400 Merrill Lynch investors, Professors, "Simple buy-and-hold index investing is one of the best, most efficient ways to grow your money to the ultimate goal of financial freedom." by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:51 pm, Post by stebul » Sun Sep 16, 2007 6:09 pm, Post (, "Mutual fund investors who hold on to their investments have been more successful than those who try to time the market." They have been leaving a lot of money on the table.” (Louis S. Harvey, President of Dalbar Research). (Peter Grandich, Wall Street whiz kid), "From 1981 through 2006 the average top performing newsletter had a loss of -27.9% the following year." The other issue is that a LEAP is an option. Discuss all general (i.e. "Setting a goal, developing an appropriate asset allocation, and selecting a handful of funds are not hugely complex taskes. Bogleheads.org Forum • Wiki • Blog About Us Suggested Reading • Sites of Interest • Support This Site • Contact by Easy Rhino » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:33 pm, Post Time IN the market will get you to the winner's circle, and you'll sleep better at night." The trough was in March 2009, so let’s say the market-timer got back in after the first quarter of 2010. by LH » Sun Sep 16, 2007 9:58 pm, Post By rickferri | April 9th, 2019 | Categories: Investments, Strategy | Tags: ETFs, Index Funds, portfolio management | My 86 year old mother wears the financial pants in the family and makes all the money decisions. (Dalbar research), "Market-timing is bunk." It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you." I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (, "We've yet to find anyone who can accurately and consistently predict the market's short-term moves." "What it really takes to improve your returns and diminish your risks is a willingness to stop focusing exclusively on the movement of the markets." by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:51 pm, Post “The important turning points in markets are never identified with precision in advance by ‘experts’ and policymakers. by White Coat Investor » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:59 pm, Post (Professor, "Forget market timing in any form." Market Timing Questions. by Dale_G » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:04 pm, Post (Charles Ellis author of, "Do nothing. (Andrew Clarke, financial author), "Most investors are unable to profitably time the market and are left with equity fund returns lower than inflation." (Liz Ann Saunders, Schwab Chief Investment Strategist), "Predicting which way the markets will head next is really a fool's errand." THE BOGLEHEADS SM WIKI: . Second, in theory market timing is brilliant. (Andrew Tobias, author of. Over this period the S&P 500 Index increased 734%, average equity funds increased 598%, and tactical asset allocation funds increased 384%." Bogleheads, who take their name from Vanguard Group founder John Bogle, favour index investing. by grabiner » Sun Sep 16, 2007 9:07 pm, Post This is the place in your life where money is no longer a concern and you are … (Stein & DeMuth, authors and advisors), "Humans can't consistently pick the right stocks or call markets." Put your money in index funds. Interesting concept. The hard part comes next: Battling your emotions so that you can stick with your plan through this and thin." May I suggest a modest improvement? "If you are not going to stick to your chosen investment method through thick and thin, there is almost no chance of your succeeding as an investor. (, "If we haven't said it enough, we'll say it again: Market timing is dangerous." (, “When investors think short-term and try to time the market, they haven’t done very well. (New Zealand Massey University), "Forget trying to time the market and do something productive instead." (. Frazer is an attorney and experienced trust officer. 4.6 out of 5 stars 422. Bogleheads are diehard fans of Jack Bogle's simple but powerful message to passively index. by watchnerd » Sun Sep 16, 2007 5:53 pm, Post Of 11 professional forecasters, every one thought the S&P would gain; it declined 38%." However history has shown that equity performance is not predictable nor guaranteed. (, "Benjamin Graham spent much of his career trying to devise a good formula for when to get into -- and out of -- the stock market. I have a short attention span with this kind of thing so I was able to read that thread for about 10 minutes. "At the peak of the bull market in March of 2000 only 0.7% of all recommendations on stocks issued by Wall Street brokerages and investment banks were to "Sell." "Trading is based on the rather arrogant belief that the trader knows more than the buyers and sellers with whom he is trading." by grok87 » Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:18 pm, Post (, "42% of millionaires of this country make less than one transaction per year in their investments." It just doesn't work." (John Waggoner, "I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully. "The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero." by watchnerd » Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:43 pm, Post (, "Write down your strategy (investment plan) -- and stay-the-course." This is the sort of stuff they debate on Bogleheads endlessly! If you have allocated your assets properly and have sufficient emergency money, you shouldn't need to worry." (Chuck Hill, Director of Research at FirstCall/Thomson Financial, "If you can't handle the short term, if the uncertainty is stressful and the headlines are unbearable, then the markets are too hot for you: Get out of the kitchen." ... For a great resource on why market timing is A Bad Idea, there is a great Wiki page on Bogleheads. 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course. (Chandan Sengupta, "Buying-and-holding a broad-based market index fund is still the only game in town." (Frank Armstrong, author). (Eric Tyson, author of. by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:33 pm, Post It seems unrealistic to assume that Joe Average is going to be able to invest in any asset class that will have a reasonable change of exceeding the cost of whatever large amount of debt he could reasonably tap. Jack Brennan, former Vanguard CEO: "If you're determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor." (Jack Brennan, former Vanguard CEO and author of, "It's a staple of personal finance advice: Buy-and-hold, because trading the stock market is a sucker's bet." (Jack Brennan, Vanguard CEO), "I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two." Fine for hedging with a smal portion of the portfolio, but not for the entire portfolio. How Diversification Works. To participate in the meeting, send an email to sacramento.bogleheads@gmail.com including your. by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 9:59 pm, Post Boglehead forecasts were worse in 2008. September 24, 2011 at 1:40 pm. My 86-Year-Old Mother Is An Inadvertent Market Timer My 86 year old mother wears the financial pants in the family and makes all the money decisions. He founded Vanguard, pioneered index funds, and inspired followers to get the most out of their long-term stock and bond investments. If you believe the market you’re investing in is efficient, that is. I think all of this market timing is statistically unfounded. (Ben Stein, economist and author). by White Coat Investor » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:09 pm, Post (Buckingham Financial Services), "Any investment method that relies on predicting the future is doomed to fail." You have a long-term plan; stick with it." This is point I have made often. (Norman Fosback, author, researcher), "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectful." We don't know what's going to happen with anything, ever." You've still not accounted for the interest you won't earn on that deep in the money call, that you would earn in cash. I might like to peruse it. (William Sheridan, financial author), "People want to know what lies ahead. by Ariel » Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:10 pm, Post A Valuable Reservoir of Investor Information One of the most overlooked parts of the highly successful Bogleheads SM community is its wiki. Only 2 out of 284 Bogleheads guessed how low the S&P 500 Index would plunge. This is point I have made often. (Peter Bernstein, author of 10 finance books), "No one can predict what the stock market will do or which mutual fund will outperform in the future. At one time or another, each will be closer to correct than the other. A "perfect market timer" comparison would be neat as a comparator, but is tough to pin down, as you can naturally always dream up even better timing if you get absurd with it. I also think I'm missing something. (, "In 2005 we interviewed more than 500 financial advisors. No guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information on this site or the appropriateness of any advice to your particular situation. (Louis Rukeyser, television host), "Investors desperately want to believe they can time the markets, but the statistics tell a different story." Also you are making assumptions of future stock market performance as part of the plan. Besides their cost, there is the problem that they are liable to tempt you into buying, and scare you into selling." Again, I invite you to really work this out deeply, comparing it to a 40:60 or 50:50 SPY/cash combo. by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:46 pm, Post 60% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS 10% cash || RSU + ESPP, How is this different than what the 2X S&P 500 funds are trying to do (rather unsuccessfully, I might add.). This article is the definitive list of Taylor Larimore's market timing quotes.The quotes have been collected from the following posts, merged, and edited to delete duplicates: Taylor's Remarkable List of Gems, June 27, 2016,; Market Timing Quotes, March 25, 2010, and; What Experts Say About Market-Timing vs. Stay-The-Course, January 24, 2015.; The current total is 120. I cannot tell them because I do not know." What matters is that you stay invested." (David Dreman, author of, "Market timing is a wicked idea. I believe it carries an assumption that risky assets will outperform risk-less instruments over my investing horizon, no? by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 6:44 pm, Post At age 65 the now mature child sells a small fraction of the equities to pay off the bond. Click for complete Disclaimer. "Take my word on it. (Good & Hermansen. "Market Timing is a poor substitute for a long-term investment plan." Saturday March 13, 2021 at 10:30am. 헦͟혁͟헮͟혆͟ ͟혁͟헵͟헲͟ ͟헖͟헼͟혂͟헿͟혀͟헲͟ Here are some quotes compiled by Mr. Taylor Larimore (the "King of Bogleheads" ) on 퐦퐚퐫퐤퐞퐭 퐭퐢퐦퐢퐧퐠 which i found in the March White Coat Investor Newsletter ( … ↳ The Bogleheads® Wiki: a collaborative work of the Bogleheads community, ↳ Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community, Mathematically mostly correct, but practical problems, Re: Mathematically mostly correct, but practical problems. Investing in low cost index funds (particularly @ Vanguard) is the way to go. You may avoid a downturn, but you may also miss the rise. by larryswedroe » Sun Sep 16, 2007 6:41 pm, Post (Peter Lynch), "Trying to anticipate any market's ups and downs can be a costly, and futile, exercise. (. (Warren Buffet), "Dalbar Research has found that both stock and bond investors tend to overreact to events, moving money in and out of mutual funds with breathtakingly bad timing." No guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information on this site or the appropriateness of any advice to your particular situation. (, "If you're determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor." Market hours and holidays are subject to change. I mean keep the same expected return with less risk. by market timer » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:43 pm, Post (Bernard Baruch), "It must be apparent to intelligent investors that if anyone possessed the ability to do so [forecast the immediate trend of stock prices] consistently and accurately he would become a billionaire so quickly he would not find it necessary to sell his stock market guesses to the general public." by White Coat Investor » Sun Sep 16, 2007 3:40 pm, Post BTW market timer, is your dissertation posted online. Bogleheads Guide to Investing: "Wall Street can't stand buy-and-hold strategies because brokers need trading activity to make money." The Leaps idea is an interesting one- I'll give it some thought. It's just a problem of practicality. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory. (William McNabb, Vanguard Chairman). Diversify. Speaker: Greg Dietrich. (Don Phillips, Morningstar's Managing Director), "Countless studies have proved that no one is able to time the market effectively." (, "For the 10 years that ended 12-31-2000, only one newsletter out of the 112 that, "What do I really think is going to happen? (, "Your best strategy is to ignore the conventional wisdom and herd behavior, which is usually wrong, and simply stay-the-course with your savings and investment program." (, "For the 12 years ending 1997, while the S&P rose 734% on a total return basis, the average return for 186 tactical asset-allocation mutual funds was a mere 384%. 83% of the advisors we polled felt that if investors had stuck to their original asset allocation plan prior to 2000, they could have cut their losses by more than half over the following few years." Bogleheads invest and keep it simple by buying mutual funds or ETFs that try to mimic the entire market. by Taylor Larimore and John C. Bogle | Jul 3, 2018. (Jesse Livermore, author & famed investor), "Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market." (Jonathan Clements, "If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what's going to happen to the stock market." (Elaine Garzarelli, Wall Street's best known strategist until fired by Lehman Brothers), "As you can probably sense, we're not keen on market-timing. Search in titles only Search in The Lounge only. Pay attention to the one thing you can control -- costs." Access Trading Hours, Market Holidays, Non-Settlement Dates, and Irregular Schedules for hundreds of markets around the globe. This lack of foresight is not surprising, because markets and the course of the economy are not modelable scientific phenomena but rather are examples of mass human behavior, which are never predictable with anything like precision.
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